OVERVIEW OF ASIA

Bill Saywell

Bill Saywell first became interested in Asia as an undergraduate student at the University of Toronto. Since then he has travelled to Hong Kong to research his Ph.D. in Chinese history, taught Asian studies, and worked as a Canadian diplomat in China.

He is now President of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, an agency that assists Canadian businesses, educators, students, and others interested in the Asia Pacific region. He was also the President of Simon Fraser University for ten years.

"When I was in my second year, I took a course on what was then usually called the Far East that included China and Japan and the prof turned me on," Dr. Saywell said. "And then as a graduate student, the opportunity to study China came seriously."

Dr. Saywell has a broad knowledge of Asian issues. His presentation focuses particularly on an economic overview of the region.

"The economies of Asia now represent the hottest economies in the world," he said. "If we in our own country are going to prosper in the way we wish, we simply have to be aware of Asia, be involved in Asia, and understand Asia.

 

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

In terms of motivations, why should young Canadians be thinking about Asia?

WS: Asia is an exciting, dynamic region, probably the most dynamic part of the world. So why wouldn't you think of where the action is.

Second, it's got a diversity of cultures, peoples and civilizations much, much older than our own. You can expand your own social and cultural horizons by tuning into what's happening to Asia culturally, linguistically, recreationally.

Third, to recognize that whatever career path you might, as a young Canadian, be thinking of taking, chances are that there could be an Asian dimension to it. And if the hottest economies in the world remain in Asia then, in terms of your career, your prosperity, then why wouldn't you think of trying to make the Asian link?

What do you think are the key issues regarding the economy in Asia?

WS: The biggest single issue facing the economies of Asia is the question of political stability. I believe that growth rates in Asia will continue to be higher than world averages by a considerable amount over the next ten years, if there is political stability.

Should one of the major countries face major instability, then it would have a ripple effect throughout the region and disrupt the economies. However, potential stability and basic economic growth are at a higher world level rate is what I predict.

Can you discuss which countries in particular are facing instability?

WS: Well one area where political stability could be seriously threatened is China --for a variety of reasons. They are going through a leadership transition. They are faced with a growing disparity of wealth between the have and have-not people and the have and have not regions.

And because of the size of the country, a change in the situation would have an enormous impact on the region. Again, I do not predict instability. I'm quite optimistic about China, but one has to look to China as an area of potential political instability.

Another area is Indonesia. President Suharto has run the country over the past three decades. There is no clear successor in line. He has done an impressive job in keeping the country politically stable with a non-religious ideology. But again, he's getting on in age and there's no clear successor in place.

The Korean Peninsula is another area. It is one of the most authoritarian regimes, probably on the face of the earth. Economically, it's a total basketcase with people close to starvation. As always there is the potential for armed conflict with South Korea, which would be devastating.

In South Asia, India has just had a vote of non-confidence in its government and the coalition has dissolved. Fortunately, India is a strong democracy and there will be a successful transition, but continued political and government change in India could be a challenge to its economy.

How do you think that grassroots protests, say in Indonesia, will affect the stability of the region?

WS: I think, as long as President Suharto and the current form of government is in place, the opposition that is appearing at the grassroots will be contained. But clearly there is increasing concern among the grassroots of countries like Indonesia, and political reform will have to tolerate that kind of dissent or it will threaten political stability. In the short-run, I don't see it as a major issue that will shake the government's control.

Are there any other key issues relating to the economy?

WS: There are a number of issues, as I point out in my presentation, of very, very serious challenges, which the developing Asian economies have to face and have to face successfully.

One is environmental degradation. This is not a just social issue but is primarily an economic one. The countries of the region are facing major soil erosion and urbanization taking over agricultural land. They are still heavily dependent on coal as fuel for energy and face very high pollution level. These problems have got to be faced, or they will get in the way of economic growth and sustainability of this growth. So environmental challenges, I would put as one of the major economic challenges.

One of the other economic challenges is infrastructure. High growth rates of these economies have not allowed the countries to transform their infrastructure in terms of railways, ports, telecommunications. The growth of the economy has outpaced that of infrastructure, and the latter has to catch up if the economy is to be able to continue to grow.

Another example is human resource infrastructure. Most of these economies again have developed much faster than their human resources have and so they're in a constant shortfall of key human resource talent. Engineers are the best example but, it really cuts across the spectrum of skilled workers. They simply have to train more people, or again that will begin to slow the economy.

For further research, Dr. Saywell recommends the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Asia Wall Street Journal, and the Economic Intelligence Unit.

Click here to see Dr. Saywell's full written presentation.